In tech, this was the smartphone decade. In 2009, Symbian was still the dominant’ smartphone’ OS, but 2010 participated the launch of the iPhone 4, the Samsung Galaxy S, and the Nexus One, and today Android and iOS boast four billion blended active designs. Smartphones and their apps are a full-grown market , now , not a intrusive brand-new scaffold. So what’s next?
The question presupposes that something has to be next, that this is a law of nature. It’s easy to see why it might seem that behavior. Over the last thirty-plus years we’ve lived through three massive, overlapping, world-changing technology platform transformations: computers, the Internet, and smartphones. It seems inevitable that a fourth must be on the horizon.
There have certainly been no shortfall of nominees over the last few years. AR/ VR; blockchains; chatbots; the Internet of Things; hums; self-driving automobiles.( Yes, self-driving gondolas would be a platform, in that whole new sub-industries would explosion around them .) And more one can’t help but notice that every single one of those has descended far short of idealistic projections. What is currently in progress?
You may recall that the growth of PCs, the Internet, and smartphones did not ever look wobbly or faltering. Here’s a list of Internet customers over age: from 16 million in 1995 to 147 million in 1998. Here’s a list of smartphone sales since 2009: Android disappeared from sub-1-million legions to over 80 million in precisely three years. That’s what a major pulpit change looks like.
Let’s compare each of the above, shall we? I don’t think it’s an unjustified similarity. Each has had champions quarrelling it will, in fact, be That Big, and even beings with more evaluated promises have foreseen increment will at least follow the path of smartphones or the Internet, albeit maybe to a lesser peak. But in fact…
AR/ VR: Way back in 2015 I spoke to a very well known VC who confidently predicted a floor of 10 million designs per year well before the end of this decade. What did we get? 3. 7M to 4.7 M to 6M, 2017 through 2019, while Oculus keeps getting reorg’ed. A 27% annual growth rate is OK, sure, but a consistent 27% growth rate is more than a little worrying for an alleged next big thing; it’s a long, long way from” 10 xing in three years .” Many people likewise predicted that by the end of this decade Magic Leap would look like something other than an utter shambles. Welp. As for other AR/ VR startups, their district is best described as” sorry .”
Blockchains: I represent, Bitcoin’s doing just fine, sure, and is easily the weirdest and most interesting thing to have happened to tech in the 2010 s; but the entire rest of the seat? I’m universally a disciple in cryptocurrencies, but if you were to have suggested in mid-2 017 to a true believer that, by the end of 2019, enterprise blockchains would essentially be dead, decentralized app utilization would still be measured in the low-pitched thousands, and no real new consume lawsuits would have arisen other than collateralized lending for a tiny coterie — I imply, they would have been scandalized. And yet, here we are.
Chatbots: No, seriously, chatbots were celebrated as the platform of the future not too long ago.( Alexa, about which more in a little, is not a chatbot .) “The world is about to be re-written, and bots are going to be a big part of the future” was an actual quote. Facebook M was the future. It no longer exists. Microsoft’s Tay was the future. It truly no longer exists. It was replaced by Zo. Did you know that? I didn’t. Zo also no longer exists.
The Internet of Things: let’s look at a few recent headlines, shall we?” Why IoT Has Consistently Fallen Short of Predictions .”” Is IoT Dead ?”” IoT: Yesterday’s Predictions vs. Today’s Reality .” Spoiler: that last one does not discuss about how actuality has blown previous predictions out of the irrigate. Very,” The world turned out to be far less rosy .”
Drones: now, a lot of really cool things are happening in the drone gap, I’ll be the first to aver. But we’re a long way apart from physical packet-switched structures. Amazon teased Prime Air delivery way back in 2015 and stimulated its first drone delivery way back in 2016, which is also when it patented its blimp mother ship. People expected great things. People still expect great things. But I think it’s fair to say they expected … a little bit more … by now.
Self-driving cars: We were promised so much more, and I’m not even speaking about Elon Musk’s hype. From 2016:” 10 million self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020 .”” True self-driving gondolas will arrive in 5 years, says Ford “. We do technically have a few, was participating in a closed pilot project in Phoenix, courtesy of Waymo, but that’s not what Ford was talking about:” Self-driving Fords that have no steering wheels, brake or gas pedals is in accordance with mass production within five years .” So, 18 months from now, then. 12 months left for that” 10 million” prophecy. You’ll forgive a certain skepticism on my part.
The above doesn’t mean we haven’t seen any success, of course. A quantity of new types of makes have been interesting slams: AirPods, the Apple Watch, the Amazon Echo family. All three are more brand-new boundaries than entire brand-new major programmes, though; not so much better a gold rush as a single vein of silver.
You may notice I left machine learning/ AI off the listing. This is in part because it surely has viewed real qualitative leaps, but a) there seems to be a general concern that we may have entered the flattening of an S-curve there, rather than continued hypergrowth, b) either way, it’s not a platform. Moreover, the wall that both drones and self-driving autoes have hit is labelled General Purpose Autonomy … in other words, it is an AI wall. AI does many amazing things, but when people foresaw 10 M self-driving cars on the roads next year, it mean they foresaw AI would be good enough to drive them. In fact it’s getting there a lot slower than we expected.
Any one of these technologies could characterize the next decade. But another possible, which we have to at least consider, is that none of them might. It is not an irresistible law of nature that just as one major tech stage begins to mature another must inevitably start its rise. We may very well encounter a tedious breach before the next Next Big Thing. Then we may see two or three rise simultaneously. But if your avowed propose is that this time you’re totally going to get in on the first floor — well, I’m here to warn you, you may have a long wait in store.
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