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What to make of Stripe’s possible $100B valuation

This is The TechCrunch Exchange, a newsletter that runs out on Saturdays, based on the piece of the same name. You can sign up for the email here.

Welcome to a special Thanksgiving edition of The Exchange. Today we will be brief. But not silent, as there is much to talk about.

Up top, The Exchange noodled on the Slack-Salesforce deal now, so delight catch up if you missed that while feeing pasty for breakfast yesterday. And, unhappily, I have no idea why Palantir is assuring its importance skyrocket. Commonly we’d discuss it, querying ourselves what its amplifications could means for the lower ranks of private SaaS firms. But as its public market progress appears to be an artificial bulge in cost, we’ll just wait.

Here’s what I want to talk about this fine Saturday: Bloomberg reporting that Stripe is in the market for more fund, at a price that could value the company at” more than $ 70 billion or significantly increased, at as much as $100 billion.”

Hot damn. Stripe would become the first or second most valuable startup in the world at those tolls, depending on the way you weigh. Startup is a weird word to use for a company worth that much, but as Stripe is still clinging to the private groceries like some sort of liferaft, deters collecting external monies, and is apparently more focused on growth than profitability, it retains the trademark qualities of a tech startup, so, sure, we can call it one.

Which is odd, because Stripe is a huge concern that could be worth twelve-figures, provided under get that $100 billion price tag. It’s hard to come up with a good reason for why it’s still private, other than the facts of the case that it can get away with it.

Anyhoo, are those reported, possible prices bonkers? Maybe. But there is some logic to them. Recall that Square and PayPal earnings pointed to strong pays capacity in recent districts, which bodes well for Stripe’s own recent expansion. Also had pointed out that 14 months ago or so, Stripe was already processing “hundreds of billions of dollars of events a year.”

You can do fun math at this occasion. Let’s say Stripe’s processing capacity was $200 billion last-place September, and $400 billion today, thinking of the multitude as an annualized metric. Stripe indictments 2.9% plus $ 0.30 for a transaction, so let’s call it 3% for the sake of simplicity and being conservative. That math shakes out to a move proportion of $12 billion.

Now, the company’s actual quantities could be closer to $ 100 billion, $150 billion and $4.5 billion, right? And Stripe won’t have the same gross perimeters as Slack.

But you can start to see why Stripe’s new rumored rates aren’t 100% wildernes. You can draw the various work if you are a believer in the company’s growth story. And helping the argument are its public comps. Square’s stock has more than tripled this year. PayPal’s value has more than double-faced. Adyen’s shares have almost doubled. That’s the sort of public marketplace pull that can really help a super-late-stage startup looking to raise new capital and reassuring an aggressive price.

To wrap, Stripe’s possible new valuation could clear some ability. The fact that it is still a private busines does not.

Market Memo

Mental health-focused startup Sesh created coin the coming week from Polaris Partners. The Exchange spent a bit of experience on the topic recently, so the funding event caught our nose. Now are three more $100 million ARR companies, and a call for startups reaching $50 million ARR. Man, what is up at Coinbase? Tiger’s investment into Unacadamey too stood out. Why? Mostly because edtech is hotter than the surface of the sunlight in 2020. Which is wild for a startup genre that previously was a bit more akin to the far apsis of Pluto as recently as last year.

Various and Sundry

And speaking of edtech, Equity’s Natasha Mascarenhas and our gallant make Chris Gates put together a special ep on the education technology market. You can listen to it here. It’s good.

Hugs and let’s both run do some cardio,

Alex

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